Newshound
Foyle — the last battleground for the heart of nationalism?
(Seamus McKinney, Irish News)
With the Westminster contest under way, Seamus McKinney considers one of the key battlegrounds for nationalism: the Foyle constituency.
The contest between SDLP leader Mark Durkan and Sinn Féin’s Mitchel McLaughlin for the Foyle seat will be one of the most important in the Westminster election.
Following the retirement from politics of former party leader and Nobel laureate John Hume, his heir simply must win to secure his political future.
The stakes could not be higher. If Mr Durkan fails to hold the traditional Hume seat, it will undoubtedly raise questions over his leadership and, thereafter, a major re-examination of his party.
Likewise, the seat is crucial for Sinn Féin. While Sinn Féin is the largest nationalist party in the north, it could be argued it cannot totally claim the crown until it has Derry.
The city has traditionally been a gauge of voting trends within nationalism.
The growth of Sinn Féin in recent elections has been reflected in results in the city. Since it first took its seats in the mid 1980s, Sinn Féin has grown steadily in the Foyle constituency.
Former SDLP leader John Hume held the seat from the establishment of the constituency in 1983. In the last Westminster election in 2001, he took 50.2% of the vote while Sinn Féin’s Mr McLaughlin came in second with 26.6%.
But by the 2003 assembly election, Sinn Féin had closed the gap significantly, winning 32% of the vote to the SDLP’s 36%.
There is a consensus among business and other figures in Derry that if the SDLP can get its vote out on May 5, it will hold the seat this time… but it will be close.
On the doorsteps, election workers claim they are receiving a good response. Sinn Féin says its candidate is being warmly welcomed in areas where only six or seven years ago, doors were slammed in the faces of Sinn Féin canvassers.
The party claims Mr McLaughlin’s controversial assertion that the murder of Jean McConville was not a “crime” has not been a factor on the doorsteps.
Likewise, the SDLP claims its man is opening up new seams of hitherto undiscovered SDLP voters, while also reviving the core vote.
On Wednesday of this week, Sinn Féin took the unusual step of unveiling a constituency manifesto in a slick launch chaired by Cavan/Monaghan TD Caoimhin O Caolain and featuring members of every level of elected forum on the island.
Mr McLaughlin believes there is an established trend towards Sinn Féin.
“Some constituencies have long standing histories of republicanism, some going back to the United Irishmen era of the 18th century,” he says.
“Derry has the other tradition, of constitutional nationalism. What has been happening then has been remarkable and even more significant.
“If you look at west Belfast and Tyrone and south Armagh, these were republican areas but we had a small relatively isolated republican tradition which has just grown stronger and stronger.”
While he admits the Robert McCartney murder is being raised on the doorsteps, the candidate claims it is in the context of people praising the way Sinn Féin responded to requests for help.
Unsurprisingly, SDLP leader Mr Durkan does not share Mr McLaughlin’s view. He acknowledges that next month’s poll is an important one for him personally and for the party.
“Derry is an important place politically. It has always been a positive and progressive place politically and it will be declaring that again by how it votes,” he says.
Mr Durkan claims the key issue on the doorsteps is a desire to get back to devolved government and the Good Friday Agreement.
Political observers believe the Westminster race will be close fought.
Derry accountant and well known electoral number cruncher Gerry Murray believes the 2003 assembly election provides a closer indication of strengths and weaknesses than any other poll. This is because the SDLP vote in that election did not hold the huge John Hume personal vote.
Based on this, and on both parties getting their full core votes out on May 5, he believes there will be about 2,500 and 3,000 votes between Sinn Féin and the SDLP, with Mr Durkan winning.
He believes it will be “Durkan by a nose”.
Likewise, Pat McArt, editor of the Derry Journal believes the residue of the Hume years will provide a huge boost for Mr Durkan.
“Had it been in November when everything was going Sinn Féin’s way, it would have been a lot closer, but with the [Northern] bank and all the other things, Durkan will more than likely hold on. It would be a disaster for him if he didn’t,” he says.
Given the closeness of the poll, it will all come down to who gets their vote out on the day. Sinn Féin has traditionally had an impressive machine, able to call on huge help.
The SDLP has overhauled itself and its party workers are buoyed up by an influx of new members. They believe they will turn out the faithful.
It could all come down to what the weather is like on May 5 and who can call on the most cars to transport voters. But most observers agree that a high turnout will favour the SDLP.
The DUP is to field assembly member, William Hay, while the Ulster Unionist Party has put forward pro-Trimble candidate, Errol Storey.
April 17, 2005
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This article appeared first in the April 15, 2005 edition of the Irish News.