Sunday Life
19 November 2006
It was a week when a new ‘D’ word entered the republican vocabulary and alongside it a new threat.
We already knew about the republican dissidents, those who have their roots in the falling-out inside the IRA in late 1997 - and those who then showed themselves in the bombs of 1998 in Moira, Portadown, Banbridge and Omagh.
The dissidents are the Continuity and Real IRA organisations, and it is the threat they currently pose that the chief constable has been warning about in recent weeks.
We see it in the burning of stores, in the roadside bomb they abandoned in Fermanagh - another of their devices that didn’t explode - and in the recent gun-attack on a police station in Co Armagh.
This is one part of the threat, but there is another linked to the new ‘D’ word - the “Disaffected”.
Now, we are talking about more recent resignations inside the IRA - resignations that are only some months old.
This, we are told, is where you will find the threat to Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness and Gerry Kelly that Sinn Fein spoke so publicly about last week.
The resignations are being viewed as a statement of opposition to their political strategy and the position they are trying to develop on policing.
What has happened recently inside the IRA is not on the same scale as 1997 - nothing like it.
The number of resignations is much smaller and they do not reach up to the same levels of leadership.
One source spoke of “a slow shedding of personnel (who) are finding a home with each other”.
According to the source, the numbers are “small”, but there has been some coming together of individuals “of all sorts of affiliations” - “disaffected IRA members, INLA members and members of other micro organisations” - meaning the Continuity and Real IRAs.
“They have access to arms,” a source said. “Some of the people who are involved are serious characters,” said another source.
And, when you add those two things together, you get to why republicans believe there is a threat to the Adams-McGuinness-Kelly leadership.
The public expression of opposition to that leadership, and the direction in which it is taking the republican movement, can be read in the “traitor” graffiti that has started to appear in some places.
So, as the British and Irish governments try to make the St Andrews Agreement work, there are now two threats - the one linked to the dissident organisations, and, now, this added feature of the more recent resignations from the IRA by those who have become disaffected over politics and policing.
The question is: Would they dare do what some believe they are thinking and talking about?
Add the dissidents and the “disaffected” together and, in terms of their numbers and how they fit into the big picture, they struggle to be relevant - but they are dangerous.
The dissident organisations were long-ago infiltrated. Special Branch has agents inside their bomb teams - so much so that explosives have been removed from devices and replaced with similar-looking substances. It is called ’substitution’.
The dissidents and the disaffected are not an alternative to the IRA and Sinn Fein - what they are, within the broader republican community, is a nuisance, an irritant.
But the fear is they may try to get themselves noticed or make themselves relevant by following through on this threat against the Sinn Fein leadership.
They might think that this would derail the republican project and the political process.
The question still is, would they dare?
The IRA, the leadership that is overseeing the transition of this organisation, will be monitoring all of this very closely - checking the mood inside the movement and watching those who have gone.
If the conditions can be got right, then republican participation in policing will be delivered.
Yes, there are still those inside the republican community capable of pulling a trigger or exploding a bomb.
But what they can’t do, and what they won’t do, is stop this process.
The dissidents and, now, the disaffected, are being left behind.
slnews@belfasttelegraph.co.uk