Sunday Business Post
18 November 2007
Tensions are mounting in the North as violent republicans claim responsibility for two gun attacks on members of the PSNI, writes Colm Heatley in Belfast.
‘They haven’t gone away, you know’’ was a phrase that returned to haunt Gerry Adams, the Sinn Fein leader, throughout the peace process.
The Assembly in the North may be established, but dissident republicans have been sending out the same message in recent weeks to those involved in the peace process.
The shooting of a police officer in Dungannon, Co Tyrone, last Monday night, came just five days after a Catholic PSNI member was shot in Derry.
The Real IRA (RIRA) claimed responsibility for both attacks. Both PSNI members survived the attacks, but the victim of Monday’s attack was shot a number of times with a handgun. Only luck prevented him being the first Police Service of Northern Ireland fatality since the force was renamed.
Between the shootings came a report from the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC), which said current or former IRA members were involved in the murder of Paul Quinn last month.
Quinn, 21,was beaten to death by a gang of masked men in a barn in Monaghan, after being lured there with the promise of work. Sinn Fein denied any republican involvement in the attack, but former republicans in south Armagh - who are opposed to Sinn Fein’s political strategy - insisted that Quinn was killed because he had fought with republicans in the months before his murder.
As if to flesh out the bones of the IMC report, which was based almost entirely on evidence from the PSNI, Lord Laird, a unionist peer, last week named under parliamentary privilege a number of republicans who he claimed were responsible for the Quinn murder.
It has been claimed in the North that Laird got his information from a well-known unionist source. Whatever the truth of the allegations, the events of the past weeks have combined to threaten the stability of the power-sharing arrangements in the North.
By far the biggest threat comes from the RIRA - this is the first time the group has attempted to kill specific policemen. The attacks on the PSNI are symbolic for republicans, especially those who disagree with Sinn Fein’s support for the force and local policing bodies.
By attacking the PSNI, the RIRA is not only seeking to create a higher profile for itself, but is also directly challenging Sinn Fein’s authority in republicanism, and forcing the party to side with the police in a very public way.
That the RIRA felt sufficiently emboldened to launch a murder bid on the PSNI took many in the North by surprise. The fact that it carried out the two attacks in Derry and Tyrone within five days caused consternation among the North’s politicians.
Since Sinn Fein decided to support the PSNI at the start of the year, dissident republicans have been bolstered by the defection of a number of republicans from the Sinn Fein camp. Most of these have refused to side with dissident republicans, but their public condemnation of Sinn Fein’s policies has given the RIRA fresh confidence that some level of support exists for a militant alternative to mainstream republicanism.
More significantly, the RIRA has benefited from the experience of a number of former IRA members, who have given practical assistance to the group, and brought with them previous experience of how to carry out attacks.
It is understood that the attack in Dungannon last Monday was planned by a number of defectors who, over the past six months, have been assembling a RIRA unit away from the eyes of the security forces. In the past, the RIRA has been crippled by informers, and almost all of its operations have resulted in arrests and imprisonment.
Over the past five years, the group has also been involved in infighting and, in the summer of 2006, a major arms-importing scheme was uncovered and alleged senior members of the RIRA arrested and charged. The RIRA seems now to have identified attacks on the PSNI as the new theatre of war.
Support and sympathy for the PSNI in republican areas of the North is negligible, despite an increasing number of Catholic recruits and Sinn Fein’s endorsement of the force. The RIRA hope the shootings will stop the trend of Catholics joining.
The attack in Dungannon was especially significant as it took place just as Sinn Fein was poised to nominate to the policing board in the area. Tyrone is one of the places where Sinn Fein has had most difficulty persuading people to support policing.
Earlier this year, the PSNI arrested senior Tyrone republican Brian Arthurs at his home. It later arrested Roisin McAliskey on an extradition warrant to Germany in connection with a 1996 IRA attack on a British Army barracks in Osnabruck.
On the day of the elections to the Assembly, the PSNI arrested Gerry McGeough, a hardline anti-Sinn Fein republican, at the voting count centre in connection with a 1981 attempt on the life of a member of the UDR. The husband of a Sinn Fein member was also arrested.
Privately, senior republicans in Tyrone say they have no time for the PSNI and their views are echoed by many republicans across the North. Last week, the Sinn Fein deputy first minister, Martin McGuinness, urged people with information about the attack in Dungannon to come forward - a call which dissidents said was proof of Sinn Fein’s ‘‘pro-British credentials’’.
Since Sinn Fein has moved away from militant republicanism and accepted the legitimacy of the institutions of state, groups such as the RIRA are seeking to directly challenge the party for the mantle of republicanism.
The murder of Paul Quinn last month exposed deep fault lines in areas such as south Armagh, where support for Adams’ peace strategy was essential over the past decade.
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), however, has chosen largely to ignore the IMC report into the Quinn murder, and said merely that, if mainstream republican involvement was proven, it would have ‘‘serious consequences’’.
That is in marked contrast to events during the peace process, when the DUP used such reports as a reason to paralyse the political process. But against the backdrop of the shootings and the IMC report, it has become clear that the DUP and Sinn Fein are concerned with making the Assembly work.
It is in neither party’s interest to see the power-sharing institutions collapse, with both having staked so much political capital on their success. Far from being a battle a day between the DUP and Sinn Fein, as Adams predicted it would be, it is those two parties which are at the centre of ensuring the Assembly remains intact, no matter what the outside threats.
For the DUP, this means ignoring the IMC’s views on the Quinn murder, which are, in any case, disputed by republicans. The DUP has sold power-sharing to its supporters, and it knows that the only way the Assembly will collapse is if it walks out.
To do that would plunge the North into crisis and give the DUP major problems with its own support base and critics who would accuse it of having joined government with terrorists.
For Sinn Fein, it means encouraging people to give information on dissident republicans to the PSNI, an unthinkable scenario just a few years ago.
There is little appetite in the republican community for a return to armed conflict, and whether the RIRA can mount any sustained campaign remains to be seen.